Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-03-06T00:04:37

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV), as measured by GOES-16, is currently at background with brief diurnal peaks to Moderate levels. This is expected to continue until days 3 and 4 (8th and 9th) when diurnal peaks may exceed the Alert threshold due to any enhancement that occurs from the fast wind of the southern crown coronal hole. This could also include some influence from the possible CME arrival on the 7th, although this is very low confidence. 

The associated fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold for most of the time, but with an increasing trend as the flux levels increase. Therefore during day 4 (9th) there is a chance of the fluence exceeding the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). The general increasing trend of the fluence over the first 3 days, whilst remaining below the Active threshold, is supported by the REFM. However the REFM models uses persistence, which brings in the high speed stream from the southern coronal hole too early, as this coronal hole is currently further east, and also slightly further south, in comparison to the previous rotation.