Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-03-07T00:01:40

The high-energy (greater than 2MeV) electron forecast carries lower than average confidence. Persistence methods are not favoured for reasons discussed in the geomagnetic section, and hence REFM and other models are less useful. Increases in flux rely on low confidence events: a glance from a CME within the first two days; and then a glance from CH20 within the second two days. There is therefore a distinct possibility that the current diurnal oscillation continues unaffected throughout.

A response in flux from any CME arrival should begin to show in rising integrated fluence during day two (Sunday 08 March) at the earliest, giving a peak risk around day three. Any geomagnetism from CH20 may then temporarily disrupt this rise before a second peak re-establishes around midweek. 

The slow transit speed of the CME and a rough speed of 500ish km/s for CH20 (based on recent glances from extensions of the southern polar coronal hole) mean that if the Active threshold is exceeded at all, it is likely to be marginal.