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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-03-14T00:08:31

The coming four-day period will most likely see the solar wind remain near long-term background levels, with only temporary slight enhancements likely in the solar wind speed. The character of these increases is somewhat uncertain, but most likely similar to the past 24 hours, with little reaction anticipated in electron populations.

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) measured by GOES-16, is expected to remain at Background to Moderate levels during the forecast period. The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence values are expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2020-03-14T00:08:31
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 1% 1%
Day 2 5% 1%
Day 3 5% 1%
Day 4 10% 1%