MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-03-15T00:23:11
With the solar wind remaining mostly at background levels over the coming days the high energy electron flux is expected to continue to fluctuate between normal background and moderate levels during the forecast period. However a slight enhancement in the solar wind on day 4 (18th) may cause a rise in electron flux at the end of the period. The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence values are expected to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, although there is a slight chance of these increasing on day 4 (18th) if a significant increase does occur in the solar wind.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-03-15T00:23:11 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 2% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 2% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |