Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-03-22T00:02:53

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux as measured by GOES-16 is currently at background levels, with the associated fluence also below the active (1e8 pfu) threshold. The flux is expected to gradually climb in response to the current fast speed stream, leading to an increasing likelihood of reaching High levels during its diurnal peak from day 1 (22nd). As the solar wind eases towards background levels later on day 3 and into day 4, we should equally see electron counts reduce significantly. The associated 24-hour fluence is therefore expected to increase from late on day 1, perhaps reaching Active levels later in the period, most probably on day 3 (24th).

However, confidence is low. Electron counts are currently below expectation and the REFM is suggesting a slow, tedious increase, which is reflected into rather low probabilities.