Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-03-23T00:16:02

The high energy electron flux may increase slightly over the next few days, with an increasing chance of reaching high levels (greater than 1000 pfu) out to day 3 (25th).

The associated 24-hr fluence is likely to see further increases for a time, but not expected to breach the Active threshold, with latest MOSWOC REFM data supporting this. 27-day recurrence figures show a slight increasing trend from 25th-27th Feb, but with a higher starting value of 3.14e7 integrated pfu as opposed to 1.33e7 integrated pfu at 23/0000 UTC, this would increase confidence for active levels not to be reached this time around.