Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-02-22T00:22:02

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux peaked above the 1000 pfu High threshold during the past 24 hours. Electron flux is likely to continue in a similar pattern over the coming days, ranging between Normal Background levels and High levels. Flux levels are likely to decline later in the period to become predominately Moderate by day 4 (25 Feb). 

The corresponding electron fluence is likely to exceed the Active threshold, 1e8 integrated pfu, on days 1 and 2 (22/23 Feb) before gradually decreasing, as represented by REFM. There is a chance of Active electron fluence on day 3 (24 Feb) but this is expected to have ceased by day 4 (25 Feb).