Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-02-23T00:03:08

The high degree of uncertainty from the geomagnetic forecast has a strong influence on the expected behaviour of electrons in the four-day period.

The chances of exceeding the Active 24-hour fluence threshold are perhaps still 'odds on' for day one, as although the diurnal flux appears to have peaked at a lower amplitude on the UTC day of Saturday, it has stayed in High territory for longer. The peak is probably being eroded by ongoing occasional Unsettled geomagnetic activity and it may rebound once this wanes.

On balance, after day one trend is felt most likely to be downward, with a possible resurgence on day four (Wednesday 26 February) in the wake of any coronal hole activity emerging on day three.