Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-03-01T00:12:38

The high energy electron flux is expected to be at normal background to moderate levels during day 1 (1 March), before increasing after the onset of the expected high speed stream, with an increasing likelihood of exceeding the high threshold from Day 2 (2 March). This follows the current increased geomagnetic activity on day 1 (1 March). Probabilities have been maintained at 40% for the last two days of the forecast period, with low confidence due the possible influence of an incoming CME (Coronal Mass Ejection), which would significantly reduce electron counts once more.

Electron fluence values are expected to increase from late on day 2 (2 March), with an increasing risk of exceeding the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold towards the end of the forecast period, however with the caveat as stated above relating the possible CME.