MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-01-31T00:07:21
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain mostly at background levels, but with diurnal peaks to moderate levels. The corresponding 24-hour fluence is therefore expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). This is supported by the REFM forecast model and by the 27-day recurrence.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-01-31T00:07:21 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 2% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 2% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 2% | 1% |