MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-02-07T00:27:11
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux at GEO is currently at normal background levels, below the observable levels by GOES16. This is expected to persist during today, before quickly rising through tomorrow to reach High levels at times, and then increasingly High levels from days 3 and 4 in response to the connection with the fast wind originating from coronal hole 07. The associated fluence is there for expected to increase, approaching Active levels during day 3 (9th) then likely exceeding the Active threshold during day 4 (10th).
REFM currently supports the forecast of a gradual increase in the fluence, with values close to or slightly over the Active threshold from day 3 onwards.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-02-07T00:27:11 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 1% |