Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-02-14T00:03:56

The peak of the high energy electron flux has declined over the last few days, with this general trend expected to continue. However some a brief diurnal peak in electron flux to high levels is possible today. During day 3 (16th Feb) an increase in the solar wind is expected to produce an increase in Electron Flux with the 1000 pfu threshold likely exceeded, and also during day 4 (17th). However, electron influence values are forecast to remain below the Active threshold over the forecast period, with any increase due to increased flux on the 16th unlikely to be observed until the 17th.

The Met Office REFM model is offering good guidance, showing the high energy electron fluence remaining below the Active threshold during the next 3 days.