MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-02-15T00:06:13
The high energy electron flux briefly exceeded the 1000pfu Alert level on the 14th. A similar effect is likely on day 1 (15th Feb). Thereafter the forecast increase in solar wind speed due to CH12 is likely to result in a steady increase in Electron Flux levels with the diurnal exceedence becoming a little more prolonged and well marked.
On balance the probability of exceedance of the Active threshold may peak on day 4 (18th Feb), but perhaps only rated a 'Chance' at 40%.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-02-15T00:06:13 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 1% |