Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-02-16T00:09:20

The high energy electron flux is forecast to start the period at background to moderate levels, but rise above the high threshold (1000 pfu) through the diurnal maximum from day 2 (17th) in response to anticipated negative coronal hole high speed stream connection.

Coronal hole influences are then likely to persist through the rest of the forecast period, bringing increased electron accumulations, and a corresponding rise in 24 hour electron fluence. This brings an increasing chance of exceeding the active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold from day 2. Previous rotation saw fluence remain below threshold, but electron counts will start the period at higher values this time around.