Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-02-17T00:02:18

The high energy electron forecast is relatively low confidence for this period as a whole, as the sole recurrent coronal hole feature has split into two entities since last pass, and we currently lack a more recent measure of its behaviour due to some STEREO A data gaps.

The probability of exceedence of the Active 24-hour integrated fluence is generally upward to start the working week in the wake of CH12 in particular, although as stated in the geomagnetic section, the recent trend appears to be for decay in this feature. Complicating the forecast is the fact that CH12, 13 and 14 come in relatively quick succession, with elevated geomagnetism potentially interrupting any rising electron fluence trend.

The relatively low solar wind speeds expected from these features on their own would probably not be sufficient to trouble the Active fluence threshold, but the diurnal flux has a higher starting point going into this forecast period than of late, giving a Chance of surpassing Active on days two and three (Tuesday 18 and Wednesday 19 February).