Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-02-18T00:19:18

The high energy electron flux is currently fluctuating between Normal Background and Moderate levels.  The electron flux might show an increase due to the onset of any high speed streams (HSS) associated with the three coronal holes over the next few days.  Although any HSS are likely to be slight. The elevated starting point could lead to the high (1e3pfu) level being reached during the diurnal peaks. However any increase in flux could be moderated due to increase geomagnetic activity from the onset of the coronal hole high speed streams.

Despite the chance of high electron flux levels, there is an overall low but slightly increasing chance of the high energy electron fluence reaching Active (1e8 integrated pfu) levels during the period, but this is currently considered unlikely.