Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-02-19T00:10:30

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux as measured by GOES16 is currently at background, below observable levels. This is expected to persist, at least at first. There is then the potential for diurnal fluxes to rise to Moderate from day 2, or potentially approach High (above 1000pfu) values at diurnal peak on day 3 and 4. This is due to any solar wind enhancement from coronal hole 15, however this remains low confidence due to the uncertainties around this high speed stream. The associated fluence is likely to remain at normal background levels until at least day 3, or day 4, when a potential rise is anticipated, but likely remaining below the Active threshold.