Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-02-26T00:18:51

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as measure by GOES-16 has been at moderate levels, but generally falling through the period. This trend is generally expected to continue through the period, although there is the potential for a further slight enhancements from day 3 onward, if any connection occurs to the southern polar crown coronal hole occurs. This is currently low confidence, however.

The associated electron fluence is at normal background levels, and expected to persist at these levels, in-line with REFM expectations. Any enhancement to flux levels through days 3 and 4 is also unlikely to lead to a significant rise in fluence levels.