MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-02-25T00:16:06
High energy electron flux levels are likely to remain at mainly moderate levels through the next four days, perhaps rising above the high threshold on diurnal peaks. In contrast the low risk of significant geomagnetic activity may temporarily decrease electron counts to background, although this is considered unlikely.
A persistent period of moderate electron flux has reduced the 24 hour fluence below the Active threshold. This falling trend is expected to continue through much of the forecast period, with a low chance of further warnings in the forecast period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-02-25T00:16:06 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |