Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-03-03T00:09:45

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) increased to moderate levels in response to the recent high speed stream, but did not exceed the high (1e3pfu) threshold. Further increases in the high speed stream could result in diurnal peaks above the high threshold especially through days 1 and 2. Any increase in counts however may be restricted by periods of enhanced geomagnetic activity.

24-hour electron fluence values are at background levels though exhibited an increase slightly stronger than anticipated, in response to the recent high speed stream. This rise may reach close to Active (1e8 integrated pfu) levels in response to further electron flux enhancements, but could also could be dampened during any periods of Active or G1/Minor Storms.

With solar winds expected to be on the decline on day 3 and through most of day 4 (the high speed stream originating from the southern crown being only expected in the latter part of day 4), the risk lowers, simply due to a gradual decrease of electron counts.