Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-04-02T00:00:13

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as measured by GOES-16 in the outer Van Allen belt, is currently at moderate levels following the recent rise in solar wind speeds. This is expected to continue through the forecast period, with an increasing chance that the flux will gradually rise above the High (1000 pfu) threshold during its diurnal peak.

The 24-hour integrated electron fluence is expected to show an increasing trend throughout the period. Values have shown a steady increase since 31/1800 UTC, much in line with REFM expectations, although this still forecasts values to remain below active levels. 27-day recurrence shows that levels were below Active on the previous rotation, albeit with a slower solar wind regime on that occasion. Therefore, it is assessed there is a chance of exceeding the active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) through the period.