MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-05-02T00:16:15
High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as measured by GOES16, is currently at background levels, with no response seen from the recent very weak CME which arrived early on the 1st May. With ambient solar winds, and no further significant solar wind enhancements anticipated, these background levels are expected to persist through the period.
The associated high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron fluence is also currently at background levels, and expected to remain at this level. This is supported by REFM which is currently giving good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-05-02T00:16:15 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |