MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-05-09T00:00:19
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to remain at background levels, with brief increases to Moderate flux (100-1000pfu) possible around the diurnal maxima, i.e. below the Alert level (1000pfu). The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). The REFM forecast model and the 27-day recurrence both strongly support the below-Active trend. The recurrence-persistence model has only 1 to 3 percent chance of exceeding the Active threshold on Day 2 to 4.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-05-09T00:00:19 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |