MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-06-08T00:01:05
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently at background levels. There may be an increase in electron counts due to the recent slightly elevated solar wind speeds, perhaps becoming high during the diurnal cycle. The corresponding 24-hour fluence may show an increasing trend but is unlikely to reach the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu).
Both the REFM and the 27-day recurrence strongly suggest low fluence levels will continue throughout.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-06-08T00:01:05 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |