MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-06-15T00:06:04
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV), as observed by GOES16 at GEO is forecast to continue at Normal Background to Moderate levels (i.e. below 1000pfu), with no significant solar wind enhancements expected.
The associated 24-hour high energy electron fluence is therefore forecast to remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). This is in line with the Met Office REFM and 27-day recurrence outputs.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-06-15T00:06:04 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |