Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-05-01T00:01:44

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to stay at normal background levels over the next 4 days, with a chance of reaching moderate levels on diurnal peaks. The possible CME arrival on day 1 (01 May) would result in a sharp decline, with a potential increase through days 2 to 4 (02 to 04 May). However, confidence is low and this scenario is considered as a small chance. The REFM and 27-day recurrence are indicating that the corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), both considered to provide good guidance at the time of writing.