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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-04-24T00:32:30

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at background to moderate levels during the past 24 hours, and little change is expected until later in the forecast period when the flux may diurnally approached the High threshold if any temporary and weak coronal hole enhancements occur. The REFM and 27-day recurrence are indicating that the corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is likely to remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), despite a gradual increasing trend, which is accepted as good guidance.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2020-04-24T00:32:30
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 5% 1%
Day 2 5% 1%
Day 3 5% 1%
Day 4 5% 1%