Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-03-25T00:18:59

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux measure by GOES-16 reached high (greater than 1000 pfu) levels at diurnal peak in the last 48 hours, likely due to a delayed response from the elevated solar winds that have been occasionally buffeting Earth at times in the last few days. Otherwise, mainly moderate levels have been observed. These elevated solar winds have now eased, with no further significant enhancement expected, until at least the end of day 4 (28th). Electron flux is therefore expected to return to mostly background levels during the coming days.

The associated electron 24-hour fluence has therefore also been rising, but as shown by REFM, is now expected to peak below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level. Beyond day 1, mainly background winds are anticipated until day 4, which is quite different to those that were observed on the previous 27-day rotation. Consequently any 27-day recurrence based models remain unreliable, although REFM does appear to give a reasonable indication of expected fluence levels beyond day T+24.