MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-03-26T00:11:34
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is expected to return to mainly background values during the coming days, although a brief rise above the 1000 pfu Alert level is possible at the diurnal peak. The associated 24-hr fluence will likely remain below the Active (1e8 integrate pfu) threshold. The REFM forecast is predicting a falling trend from around 5e7 integrated pfu, and the 27-day recurrence also shows a fall, albeit rather erratically. These trends are supported in the forecast and the recurrence persistence model probabilities (between 7 and 15 percent for Days 1 to 4) are considered to be overdone.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-03-26T00:11:34 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |