MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-03-27T00:14:23
With the solar wind expected to remain at background to slightly elevated levels during much of the forecast period, the high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux will remain mainly background values over the coming days. However, there is a chance of the high energy electron flux temporarily exceeding the High threshold (1000 pfu) during today's diurnal peak.
The associated 24-hour fluence will remain below the Active (1e8 integrate pfu) threshold. This is confirmed by the Met Office REFM, which predicts a falling trend from around 5e7 integrated pfu.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-03-27T00:14:23 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |