Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-04-03T00:07:48

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as measured by GOES-16 is currently at moderate levels following the recent rise in solar wind speeds. This is expected to continue through the forecast period, with a chance that the flux will rise above the High (1000 pfu) threshold during the diurnal peaks today and tomorrow, and then again during day 4 after the high speed stream from CH25 arrives.

The 24-hour integrated electron fluence values were initially steady but have shown a slight increase since 02/1200 UTC. The current values are close to REFM expectations, which forecasts values to rise a little further, while remaining below Active levels.  The REFM model is considered to be offering good guidance.