Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-04-04T00:08:35

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 reached high levels (peak 1140 pfu) at the diurnal maximum. With no further significant enhancements anticipated, peak diurnal flux values should decline through the period, although there is a chance of further brief periods of breaching the alert threshold (greater than 1000 pfu), mainly early in the forecast period.

The associated electron fluence saw a steady decline through the second half of the 3rd Apr, and the current decreasing trend from the REFM is considered good guidance, with values likely to remain well below the alert threshold (1e8 integrated pfu).