Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-04-11T00:22:48

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux as measured by GOES-16, is currently at background, and expected to remain at this level on day 1, before rising day 2 and 3 due to any enhancement that occurs from the arrival of the fast wind of coronal hole 26. The extent of the solar wind enhancement is currently uncertain, leading to very low confidence in the electron flux also responding. Consequently, whilst the electron count is forecast to rise on day 2, and perhaps 3 (12th and 13th) this only gives a chance for high flux levels (greater than 1000pfu) being reached at diurnal max from day 2 onward.  

Given the significant uncertainty, the associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold, but with a slight chance of rising above on day 2 and 3 (11th and 12th). REFM currently gives a good indication of expected fluence given no solar wind enhancements, as per the previous solar rotation, however this is likely to deviate from observed values after the onset of the coronal hole fast wind.