MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-04-12T00:22:03
The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux as measured by GOES-16, is currently at background. This is expected rise during days 1 and 2 (12th and 13th), with a chance of reaching high levels (1000 pfu) at diurnal peak. This is due to the recent arrival of the fast wind from coronal hole 26. However, only a weak connection has been observed so farm with solar winds slightly elevated above background. This suggests that any electron enhancement is likely to be limited. Consequently any period of high electron flux is currently expected to be brief.
The associated electron fluence is therefore expected to remain near background, with only a very slight chance of rising above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), with the greatest risk on day 2 (13th).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-04-12T00:22:03 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |