Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-04-19T00:35:15

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV), as measured by GOES-16, is expected to be at mostly background levels to start the period. However, electron counts may increase from day 2 (20th), following anticipated limited connection with the high speed stream from negative coronal hole 30, a northeastward extension of the southern polar crown. This brings an increasing chance of moderate flux levels through the diurnal maximum, with a low chance of reaching high levels by days 3 and 4 (21st and 22nd). Associated 24-hour electron fluence may in turn respond with an increasing trend, but is unlikely to reach the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), as supported by REFM and 27-day recurrence data.