MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-05-19T00:01:29
The high energy electron flux (greather than 2 MeV) is likely to remain at background levels much of the time, though may become moderate during the diurnal maxima, should there be any significant connection with the HSS originating from coronal hole 40 later in the period. The corresponding 24 hour fluence is forecast to remain well below the active threshold.
This confirmed by the REFM and the 27-day recurrence, both indicative of very low levels of fluence.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-05-19T00:01:29 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 2% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 3% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 4% | 1% |