Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-05-20T00:01:16

The high energy electron flux (greather than 2 MeV) is most likely to remain at background levels initially, although an increase to moderate at the diurnal maximum is possible later in the period. Whilst there was a slight increase on the equivalent of Day 1 on the last rotation, the solar wind speeds were also higher at this time. With the wind speeds currently lower than the previous rotation, electron flux is expected to remain at background levels for the next couple of days. Thereafter if we see a connection to coronal hole 40 on Days 2 or 3 (21 and 22 May), then an increase in flux levels is possible on Days 3 or 4 (22 and 23 May). However it is unlikely the flux will reach High levels. 

The corresponding fluence is currently well below the Active threshold, and even if an increase in the electron flux occurs on Days 3 or 4, it is unlikely the fluence will rise high enough to become Active. Both the REFM and recurrence-persistence models indicate very low likelihood of Active fluence.