MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-05-21T00:07:25
The high energy electron flux has been at predominantly background levels over the past few days, but a slight rising trend is likely from day 2 (22nd) as electron counts increase from anticipated weak influences of negative coronal hole 40 in the southwest. However values are unlikely to reach the high (1000 pfu) threshold.
Corresponding 24 hour fluence values may increase later, but expected to remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), as indicated by latest MOSWOC REFM data.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-05-21T00:07:25 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |