MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-05-28T00:00:41
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to stay at background levels through the forecast period. It may reach moderate levels later on day 3, should there be any connection with a coronal hole high speed stream, but the chance appears very low at this stage. The corresponding 24-hour fluence is forecast to remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), this is confirmed by the REFM and the 27-recurrence outputs.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-05-28T00:00:41 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |