Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-04-28T00:33:01

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to remain at normal background levels during the forecast period, but may reach moderate levels at times during its diurnal peak. The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to continue well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout. 

The Met Office REFM output indicates a flat if slightly increasing trend, which is considered good guidance, although any increase is likely to be less than currently indicated. The Met Office recurrence-persistence electron forecast model keeps probabilities of breaching the threshold mainly below 10% through the 4-day forecast period.