MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-03-29T00:24:55
The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux as measure by GOES-16, is currently normal background, with diurnal peaks reaching moderate levels. With slow-ambient solar winds electron flux levels are expected to remain at similar levels for day 1 (29 March). This then becoming more active later on day 2 (30 March) or sometime on day 3 (31 March) with the arrival of the high speed stream related to CH24.
The associated (greater than 2MeV) 24 hour electron fluence will therefore remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through much of the period, but with an increased chance of rising close to or above the threshold towards the tali end of day 3 (31 March).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-03-29T00:24:55 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |