MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-04-29T00:29:21
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to stay at normal background levels over the next 4 days, with a chance of reaching moderate levels on diurnal peaks. The possible filament eruption arrival on 01 May would result in a sharp decline, with any recovery in values likely to be beyond the end of the forecast period.
Corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to continue at well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-04-29T00:29:21 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |