MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-05-05T00:21:44
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as measured by GOES16, is expected to remain mostly at background levels, below the high threshold, throughout the forecast period, but with temporary breaches into the moderate category through diurnal cycles.
Associated high energy electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), as suggested by REFM guidance, and a decreasing trend in fluence is predicted.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-05-05T00:21:44 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |