MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-05-04T00:09:35
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as measured by GOES16, is expected to remain below the high threshold throughout the forecast period, but with increases to moderate levels through the diurnal cycle from day 2 (5th) as electron counts rise under the influence of negative coronal hole 35.
Associated high energy electron fluence is expected to remain below the active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), as suggested by latest REFM data. However, a rising trend is likely from day 2, as any enhanced geomagnetic activity subsides.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-05-04T00:09:35 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |