Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-04-27T00:21:08

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to remain below the Active threshold throughout. The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to continue well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). 

The REFM model has a flat, low trend, while the 27-day recurrence has an increase towards the end of this period, although not above the threshold. Current fluence levels are lower than the previous rotation, which suggests fluence levels will not pass above the Active threshold. The recurrence-persistence probabilities also indicates very low risk of reaching the threshold on Days 2 to 4 with probabilities mostly remaining in single figures.