MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-04-20T00:08:37
With weak coronal hole high speed stream effects likely to develop on day 1 (20th), and perhaps more marked strengthening of the solar wind on day 3 (22nd) under further coronal hole influences, high energy electron flux levels are expected to see a rising trend through the forecast period, and may exceed the high (1000 pfu) threshold through the diurnal maximums from day 2 (21st).
Electron fluence levels are forecast to follow an increasing trend due to rising electron counts, but at this stage are considered unlikely to reach the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-04-20T00:08:37 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |