Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-04-13T00:10:15

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux as measured by GOES-16, is currently at background levels. The recent slightly elevated wind speeds may give an increase in electron levels, however the solar wind is expected to gradually decrease and be mostly ambient for Days 1 and 2 (13 and 14 Apr). There is just a slight chance of the electron flux reaching High levels (>1000pfu) on Days 1 and 2 after the recent higher wind speeds. Thereafter there is a possibility of another increase in solar wind speeds on Days 3 and 4 (15 and 16 Apr), which may give an increase in the electron flux.

Currently, the electron fluence is well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). The REFM model suggests a slight rising trend, but REFM stays well below the Active threshold, and the recurrence-persistence model keeps the chance of reaching Active levels below 5%. Therefore if an increase in solar wind speed occurs, there is a slight chance of breaching the Active threshold, mainly on Days 3 and 4.