MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-04-14T00:23:50
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is likely to remain below the Alert threshold (1000 pfu). The associated 24 hour fluence is also forecast to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu).
Met Office REFM output suggests a rising trend which is considered unlikely, however in spite of this rise remains well below the Active threshold. The 27-day recurrence also has a weak rising trend, not sufficient to take the fluence above the Active threshold. The probabilities from the combined recurrence-persistence model for going above Active remain below 5 percent throughout, and this is considered to give good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-04-14T00:23:50 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 3% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 4% | 1% |