Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-04-15T00:13:48

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is likely to remain below the High Alert threshold (1000 pfu), diurnally fluctuating between Moderate and Normal Background levels. However, the flux may increase later in the period if connection is made to the high speed stream from the southern crown coronal hole. The associated 24 hour electron fluence is therefore forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout the period, but with a slight chance of exceedance on days 3 and 4 (17th and 18th). 

The REFM output suggests weak activity with a slight rise, but levels remaining below the Active threshold. The 27-day recurrence also has a weak rising trend, but this is not sufficient to take the fluence above the Active threshold. The probabilities from the combined recurrence-persistence model for going above Active remain around 1 to 3 percent through days 1 to 3, but increases to 13 percent on day 4 (18th). Both models are considered to be giving good guidance.