Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-04-16T00:20:35

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV), as measured by GOES-16, is likely to remain below the High Alert threshold (1000 pfu), diurnally fluctuating between Moderate and Normal Background levels. The flux may increase later in the period if connection is made to the high speed stream from the southern crown coronal hole, but this is rather uncertain. The associated 24 hour electron fluence is therefore forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout the period, albeit with a possible rising trend, as demonstrated by REFM.